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FloristsReview.com 55 Many economists expect growth in the monetary value of goods and services produced and bought in the U.S. to slow even further in 2024. SOURCE: The World Bank. * Projections by Moody's Analytics. 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2021 2022 2023* 2024* 2020 2014 2.3% 2.7% 1.7% 2.2% 2.9% 2.3% 2.1% 2.1% 1.4% 5.9% 0 -1 -2 -3 1 2 3 4 5 6 -2.8% PREPARE FOR A SOF T LANDING U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Annual Percent Changes retail sales are expected to be virtually flat for both 2023 and 2024. THE LABOR MARKET Shoppers open their wallets more quickly when they are feeling good. "Consumer confidence has been trending higher, and I think prospects are good for it to improve [in 2024]," Hoyt says. A healthy job market is a major driver of consumer confidence. "e unemployment rate has been low, bouncing around between 3.5 percent and 3.8 percent for some time," Hoyt continues. "We think unemployment will trend upward a bit, ending 2023 around 3.9 percent and 2024 around 4.2 percent." (Many economists peg an unemployment rate of 3.5 percent to 4.5 percent as the "sweet spot" that balances the risks of wage escalation and economic recession.) Low unemployment may fuel happy sentiments among citizens, but it presents retailers with two challenges. e first is the need to raise wages to attract sufficient workers. "Wage and salary income growth has been strong, fueled by a tight labor market," Hoyt notes. "We're expecting it to increase to just over 5 percent for both 2023 and 2024." In 2022, the growth was a little over 8 percent. Reinforcing the estimates of some economists, Palisin says his members have had to hike their compensation to remain competitive among themselves and other economic sectors. e group's entry-level hourly wages increased an eye-popping 8 percent to 10 percent in both 2022 and 2023, far higher than the historic average of 2.5 percent to 3.0 percent. Problem No. 2 is a scarcity of workers. Inability to hire enough people— particularly of the skilled variety— can affect bottom lines. Two problems contributing to a labor shortage are the retirement of baby boomers and a post-pandemic reordering of life goals that many people are making. "Some demographic structural things happening in the U.S. mean that we just don't have, in many cases, the number of workers needed to meet demand," says Palisin. "And that's not going to change." Little wonder employers are turning their attention to retaining the talent they have. THE HOUSING MARKET Given the generally upbeat consumer sentiment, prospects are good for the housing sector in 2024. at favors retailers because home buyers tend to load up their shopping carts at stores. "New home sales are running at the top end of the range set in the decade preceding the pandemic," Yaros informs. "One reason is that a lack of existing inventory is pushing buyers to consider new homes. e construction industry is stepping in to close the gap, and housing starts have exceeded expectations." e construction of new homes is being fueled by a cold hard fact: ere aren't enough existing homes

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